Accounting for local temperature effect substantially alters afforestation patterns

Abstract Human intervention in forested ecosystems is hoped to perform a fundamental shift within the next decade by reverting current forest loss—a major source of CO 2 emissions—to net gain taking up carbon and thus aiding climate change mitigation. The demanded extensive establishment forests will local surface energy fluxes, with it climate, addition competing food fiber production for land water. Scenario building models encompass this competition resources but have turned blind eye biogeophysical (BGP) flux disturbance so far. We combine benefit sequestration afforestation/reforestation (A/R) additional incentive or penalty BGP induced cooling warming translating temperature equivalent. then include new aspect land-use model Model Agricultural Production their Impact on Environment (MAgPIE) via modifying application price greenhouse gases (GHGs). This enables us use MAgPIE produce A/R scenarios that are optimized both potential equivalent effect, as well socio-economic trade-offs A/R. Here we show optimal patterns substantially altered effects into account. Considering benefits establishing triples (+203.4%) viable global area 2100 from 116 351 Mha under conditions shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP2) scenario driven same GHG price. Three quarters (76.0%, +179 Mha) additionally established tropical climates alone. Therefore, further neglect undervalues while simultaneously running risk proposing counterproductive measures at high latitudes. However, focus forestation intensifies where contribute most related need be considered alongside inhibit unintentional harm mitigation efforts.